Let’s try to untangle this controversial subject and speculate about the future of work.
As a starting point we can look at the words of two great thinkers:
AI will take all our jobs and few new ones will be created
Susskind, D. (2020). A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond. Metropolitan Books
AI is redefining “routine” tasks and taking over both manual and cognitive jobs, posing a risk to up to half of all jobs; while it can create unforeseen tasks and jobs, there’s no guarantee of sufficient job replacement, necessitating a revamp in education and training to focus on fostering creativity, emotional intelligence, and lifelong learning.
AI will take current jobs but create better new ones
Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI | Lex Fridman Podcast
The introduction of AI may cause job turnover, but it ultimately leads to more jobs and higher wages, as AI-driven efficiencies lower prices and spur new demand, creating new enterprises; however, there’s a need for individuals to adapt and acquire new skills, often aided by AI, to thrive in these changing circumstances.
The billion-dollar question is of course whether AI will create more jobs that it takes. I will refrain from taking a stance here, but instead focus on the arguments Susskind and Andreessen have in common and what you can do to improve your chances in both scenarios.
AI will take over tasks, not jobs
Your job consists of several tasks and the AI automation process targets tasks not the full job.
AI will start automating tasks that are repetitive, predictable, and require low cognitive engagement. But it will not stop there, we already today see AI taking on tasks that need creativity, problem-solving and considerable cognitive engagement, like data analysis, report writing and generating photos/illustrations (AI pretty good with creativity see Automating creativity — by Ethan Mollick — One Useful Thing).
Leaving social interaction and deep thinking to us humans. As AI advances, it will automate more advanced tasks, leading to changes in job-roles. We already see how e.g., Microsoft is trying to improve AI capability for social interaction to another level with project Rumi (Project Rumi — Microsoft Research)
What about my job?
- If your job consists of a few similar tasks, then your entire role is likely to be automated by AI in the near future.
- If your job involves a variety of different tasks and social interactions, then your role is likely to continue existing, but being re-defined since AI will take over much of your routine tasks. Note: today, writing a report is considered a routine task!
A full day of deep thinking?
The complex stuff, deep thinking, is left to us humans — this is a different beast compared to tackling routine tasks.
Our capacity for deep thinking is limited, doing cognitively “easy” tasks makes it possible for us to do 8–10 hour work days. In a future where AI assists us with all the easy tasks, our workday must be optimized for deep thinking and look quite different.
Deep thinkers such as Yuval Harari and Warren Buffet are known for spending a lot of time meditating and reading. I’m not sure if my manager would be happy with me spending 4 hours meditating and reading each workday…But our brains are not wired for 8 hours of constant complex thoughts.
We must throw away many of the current conceptions when structuring the new workdays, if we do it the right way, the future might turn out bright.
Start preparing now!
It’s crucial now, more than ever, for us to set the strategy and tactics for:
- Embracing Lifelong Learning: We must spend more time studying for each unit of output, each day is a day for learning.
- Developing Non-Automatable Skills: Skills like critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence. The term non-automatable skills are highly dynamic and we must be agile.
- Adapt and Be Flexible: The work landscape is changing, and we need to be prepared and open to change. This might mean changing our career paths or adopting new ways of working.
Conclusion
Will there be work for everyone? There will be fewer “easy” tasks to perform, forcing us to re-define jobs. AI won’t steal our jobs, but it will change them, requiring us to adapt and evolve more and quicker. We have a big chance of turning this into something positive for all of us.
